IEA Projects Rising Global Oil Surplus Amid Slower Demand Growth
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the global oil surplus in 2026 could reach about 4.09 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase from last month’s projection of 3.97 million bpd. This surplus arises as global oil supply is forecast to grow by approximately 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and about 2.5 million bpd in 2026, with monthly increases around 0.1 million bpd. The persistent surplus results from supply outpacing demand, driven by slower-than-usual growth in oil demand.
Coinciding with the imminent surplus, OPEC+ has decided to pause increases in crude exports. The IEA’s energy outlook includes a somewhat controversial scenario, reintroduced this year following a request from the White House, projecting that global oil demand could grow until 2050. The IEA maintains that this outlook was not influenced by US pressure.
Critics of the forecast argue that it underestimates the uptake of electric vehicles, especially in developing regions such as Asia, which could dampen future oil demand. Nonetheless, two main scenarios within the outlook suggest that oil consumption will peak by 2030 due to strong adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies.
In all scenarios, the IEA expects renewables to at least double over the next five years, with more renewable energy projects underway than in the past 40 years combined. The Global Wind Energy Council notes an irreversible momentum toward electricity generation from renewables, which are growing faster than any other major energy source.
This report comes ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil, where global leaders will gather to discuss policies aimed at addressing climate change.
