IEA Warns of Potential 4 Million Barrels per Day Oil Glut in 2026 Amid Supply Surplus
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a warning about a potential oversupply of oil reaching about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 as global supply outpaces demand, a figure larger than previously forecast. The IEA's latest monthly report projects that global oil supply will grow by approximately 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and by 2.5 million bpd in 2026, each roughly 100,000 bpd higher than the estimates in last month's report. By 2026, total oil supply is expected to exceed demand by about 4.09 million bpd, an increase from 3.97 million bpd forecast earlier.
In response to market conditions, OPEC+ producers have paused plans to increase crude exports. The IEA's energy outlook includes a controversial scenario where global oil demand continues to grow through 2050. This scenario was reintroduced this year after prompting from the White House, though the IEA denies that it was due to US pressure.
Despite these projections, renewable energy is expected to double over the next five years, with the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) highlighting irreversible momentum toward electricity and renewables growing faster than other energy sources. Critics of the forecast argue that it underestimates the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), especially in developing Asian markets, which would significantly curb oil demand.
The report coincides with the COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil, emphasizing two main scenarios where oil consumption could peak by 2030 driven by the expansion of EVs and renewable energy sources.
