In 2025, Bitcoin Showed How Spectacularly Wrong Price Forecasts Can Be
Bitcoin ended 2025 significantly below its all-time peak and posted its first full-year loss since 2022. On October 10, a flash crash sent BTC down about 10% to roughly $87,860 after a record high of $126,223 six days earlier. This move triggered more than $19 billion in liquidations within 24 hours and wiped about $500 billion from total crypto market capitalization. From the October 10 crash onward, Bitcoin fell more than 30% from the peak reached six days earlier.
Price forecasts throughout 2025 were wide-ranging, spanning from extreme highs to conservative targets, but largely failed to anticipate the downturn. Many predictions cited ETF inflows and institutional buying as bullish drivers. Notable forecasts included Jurrien Timmer predicting $1 million by 2038, Larry Fink suggesting $700,000 if Bitcoin's scale was reached, Samson Mow expecting $1 million by end-2025, Adam Back forecasting between $500k and $1 million, Chamath Palihapitiya targeting $500k, JPMorgan predicting $165k by year-end, and Michael Saylor estimating $150k by year-end.
Additional prominent calls included VanEck predicting $180k in Q1, Bitwise forecasting $200k, Tom Lee expecting $200k–$250k, and Arthur Hayes predicting $200k–$250k. Mike Novogratz later cut his target to $120k–$125k, with Standard Chartered lowering theirs to $100k from $200k. Amid this volatility, Strategy and MicroStrategy bought about $1 billion of BTC on December 15, bringing their holdings to 671,268 BTC.
The takeaway from 2025 is clear: while price forecasts are easy to make in crypto, accurately predicting Bitcoin’s price remains rare, highlighting the market’s unpredictable nature.
