Investigation Finds Leadership Failures in OBR Leak of November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suffered its worst failure in 15 years when the November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was leaked online nearly an hour before Chancellor Rachel Reeves's budget speech. An investigation led by OBR chief of staff Laura Gardiner and former National Cyber Security Centre head Ciaran Martin attributed responsibility primarily to the OBR leadership, noting weaknesses in procedures that likely pre-existed and prompted plans for audit and improvements.
A similar premature breach had occurred earlier in the year during the March spring statement, when the EFO was accessed five minutes into Reeves's speech after being uploaded before publication. The vulnerability was linked not only to OBR leadership but also to inadequate IT security involving the Treasury and Cabinet Office, which failed to protect against outside access.
The prematurely released EFO included key announcements on taxes, growth, and policy changes, provoking mockery and anger in Parliament. OBR chair Richard Hughes issued an apology and expressed that he was mortified by the incident, stating he would resign if he lost the confidence of Reeves or the Treasury Select Committee.
Established in 2010 by then-chancellor George Osborne to provide independent economic forecasts separate from Treasury influence, the OBR’s credibility has been challenged by this breach. Chancellor Reeves has denied accusations of misleading the public, asserting that the higher taxes announced were essential to sustain economic stability.
