Is the UK Really Heading Towards Civil War?
Following last summer's riots in England, Elon Musk claimed that civil war was inevitable, reflecting a broader public discussion on the topic. The idea of a civil war in the UK has moved from fringe online spaces into mainstream debate, appearing in opinion pages and being mentioned by MPs such as Nigel Farage.
Kings College London professor David Betz warns of a culturally fractured Britain, anticipating an asymmetrical conflict involving three sides: urban Muslim enclaves, a white British population that views the government as illegitimate, and a weakened state. Betz also warns of the possibility of ethnic cleansing and estimates up to 23,000 deaths per year in such a conflict.
This narrative has gained traction beyond the far right, influenced by right-leaning media outlets and online writers like El Inglés. A YouGov poll found that up to 33% of British adults believe civil war could occur within the next decade. Dominic Cummings has stated that intelligence services are already discussing risks related to racial, ethnic, and mob violence.
In contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer has rejected the framing of an impending struggle, arguing it is a political choice between globalists and nationalists and portraying London as a wasteland. Experts such as Professor Dominic Abrams suggest the UK is well placed to absorb conflicts, citing institutions like the NHS, universities, and unions, and say a civil war is unlikely, although tensions will rise.
A July thinktank report by British Future and the Belong Network described the UK as a "powder keg" of social tensions. It found that a third of people rarely meet those from different backgrounds and warned that unrest could reignite without action addressing polarisation. Lisa Nandy warned that the north of England could "go up in flames," highlighting the seriousness of the social divisions.
