JPMorgan Analysts Doubt Possibility of Crypto Winter Despite Bitcoin Sell-Off
JPMorgan analysts maintain a positive outlook on the cryptocurrency market, expressing doubt that a crypto winter is imminent despite a significant Bitcoin sell-off in November. Although Bitcoin ended the month down 9% from its January opening value, trading around $93,000 as of Tuesday—a decline of about 1.5% from that level—the analysts consider this pullback meaningful but not indicative of a market cycle end.
Over the past year, Bitcoin's price has decreased approximately 5%, according to CoinGecko data. The broader token market caps have contracted by over 20%, trading volumes have fallen, whereas stablecoins have demonstrated resilience, with their total volume expanding for the 17th consecutive month.
This recent pullback aligns with inflation-related dynamics following the 2024 U.S. general election and the re-election of former President Trump. JPMorgan notes that the traditional four-year price cycles tied to Bitcoin halving events appear to have concluded, highlighting a significant change in the market structure in recent years.
The prediction market Myriad has assigned a 6% probability of a crypto winter occurring by February 2026, a decrease from 16% just four days earlier. Investment in Bitcoin through ETFs is seen as more stable, with experts like Eric Balchunas commenting that the extreme 80% drawdowns experienced in the past are unlikely to recur.
Supporting this optimistic sentiment, Standard Chartered warns that crypto winters may be a phenomenon of the past, especially with expectations of a looser Federal Reserve policy. Despite a recent tapering of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered also suggests that the era of crypto winters might be behind the market.
