JPMorgan Maintains $170,000 Bitcoin Target Despite Recent Price Drop
JPMorgan continues to target a gold-linked bitcoin price of approximately $170,000 over the next 6 to 12 months, based on its volatility-adjusted BTC-to-gold model. The bank's model shows the mNAV ratio, which compares enterprise value to bitcoin holdings, remains above 1.0 at about 1.13, indicating resilience against forced-selling risk.
At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading near $91,200 despite a recent price plunge. JPMorgan attributes the price pullback to renewed mining pressure in China and sales by higher-cost miners. Declines in hashrate and mining difficulty have prompted the bank to lower its bitcoin production-cost estimate from $94,000 to $90,000.
The post-October 10 deleveraging in perpetual futures markets appears largely to have played out. JPMorgan also highlights a $1.4 billion reserve fund serving as a buffer that could cover roughly two years of dividend and interest payments.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) remains a significant driver for bitcoin as it holds 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Additionally, a forthcoming MSCI index decision on January 15 is seen as a potential asymmetric catalyst for the market.
