Key 2026 Senate and House Races Could Decide Control of Congress
Control of Congress in 2026 is expected to hinge on a small set of competitive Senate races and House districts. There are 33 Senate seats in-cycle, with the GOP map viewed as favorable entering the year.
In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is considered vulnerable. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) plans heavy fundraising efforts. The Republican primary features candidates Buddy Carter, Mike Collins, Derek Dooley, and Reagan Box, while Gov. Brian Kemp opted not to enter the race.
In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, creating an open-seat contest. Democrats are aiming to flip the seat, with involvement from figures like Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley. Michele Morrow is challenging in the GOP primary.
Michigan’s Sen. Gary Peters (D) is also retiring, leading to an open-seat race. On the Democratic side, candidates Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed are competing, while Republicans are backing Mike Rogers.
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R) is seeking a sixth term. Democrats view this seat as a top target with potential rivals such as Gov. Janet Mills or Graham Platner.
New Hampshire’s Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring. Republicans John Sununu and Scott Brown are in the mix, with Rep. Chris Pappas expected to run for the Democrats.
Regarding House races, Colorado's 8th District, represented by Gabe Evans (R), is a highly competitive swing district spanning Northern Denver suburbs and Greeley.
In New York's 17th District, Rep. Mike Lawler (R) is preparing for a high-profile race with significant investment from national groups.
Iowa's 1st District, represented by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R), remains a frequent battleground known for close results and split-ticket voting, where she will be defending her seat.
