Labour leadership challenges, immigration reforms, Brexit strategy, and prison release errors in UK politics
Scottish Labour MPs reportedly discussed the possibility of ousting Sir Keir Starmer before the Scottish Parliament elections in May, with concerns stemming from the prime minister’s unpopularity potentially leading to significant losses. Leadership challenges in Labour require 80 MPs to trigger a contest, and although 15 of 37 Scottish Labour MPs hold front-bench roles indicating some loyalty, anxiety about election results remains. Scottish Labour intends to focus its campaign on the SNP’s record rather than on Starmer or the UK government, positioning Anas Sarwar as central to their 2026 Holyrood campaign.
Separately, anonymous briefings to journalists alleged that Starmer would resist leadership challenges despite Wes Streeting and other cabinet ministers supposedly plotting against him. Starmer expressed loyalty to the prime minister and demanded those responsible for the briefings be dismissed. The episode revealed tensions within Downing Street, particularly directed at Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, although official denial was made regarding involvement in the briefings. Streeting later described the environment at Downing Street as toxic and sexist, supporting the dismissal of those behind the briefings. Communication efforts to reconcile included phone conversations between the prime minister, Starmer, and Streeting, highlighting unresolved friction.
On Brexit policy, Starmer’s 2018 call for a second EU referendum had foreshadowed Labour’s eventual backing of such a referendum prior to the Conservative victory in 2019. By 2024, Starmer signaled a policy reset towards closer ties with the EU but maintained that the post-Brexit settlement involving separation from the single market and customs union would not be reversed. The UK-EU deal agreed in May 2024 serves as a starting point, with ongoing talks around details like food checks, carbon tariffs, youth mobility, and the Erasmus program. Some Labour and government figures privately consider rejoining the customs union as a potential growth strategy, despite the limitations it would impose on independent UK trade policy. Public polling suggests waning political salience of Brexit, likened by ministers to previous public opinion shifts on issues like the Iraq War.
Concurrently, in the year to March, 262 prisoners were mistakenly released, a rise of 128% from the previous year. Among these were Hadush Kebatu, a migrant sex offender deported after mistakenly released, and Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, an Algerian sex offender who was also released by error and later deported. Justice Secretary David Lammy expressed outrage at the release errors and indicated efforts to rectify these quickly. This problem spans various parts of the justice system, including courts, the Prison Service, the Ministry of Justice, and the Home Office, with repeated failures to safely determine incarceration. Criticism has arisen concerning Lammy’s disclosures to Parliament over the incidents, with opposition parties and commentators scrutinizing government transparency.
Meanwhile, newly appointed Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced ambitious migration reforms, including introducing temporary refugee status and reducing asylum support, inspired by Denmark-style approaches. The proposals represent the most substantial changes since the war and form part of a toughened Labour stance on migration. Regional and international cooperation, including at the upcoming G7, is part of the strategy, along with expanding immigration staffing. Treasury preparations for a heavy Budget continue, with indications that income tax will not rise despite initial hints, raising concerns about government credibility. Internal turmoil at Downing Street persists, exemplified by the leadership challenge briefings and tensions between staff, including Morgan McSweeney and Darren Jones. Prime ministerial appearances ahead of the Budget aim to communicate positive messaging on school breakfast clubs, rising wages, and ensuring manifesto commitments, amidst questions about the effectiveness of Downing Street’s communication strategy.
