Macquarie Predicts U.S. Senate Crypto Framework by Early 2026 as Market Structure and GENIUS Act Rules Progress
Macquarie anticipates that bipartisan discussions in the U.S. Senate concerning market-structure legislation and the GENIUS Act rulemaking could result in a workable cryptocurrency regulatory framework by early 2026.
The Senate Agriculture Committee has released a bipartisan draft granting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) more authority over digital commodities. This initiative is paired with the Senate Banking Committee’s Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025, with reconciliation of these efforts expected in 2026.
Rulemaking under the GENIUS Act, along with related stablecoin regulations, is projected to follow a similar timeline targeting early 2026.
Key regulatory figures have also indicated progress. Acting Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Travis Hill, signaled that a proposed prudential standards rule for stablecoins could emerge in early 2026. Similarly, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) have noted advancements toward establishing a stablecoin framework for banks.
A potential compromise within the Senate Banking Committee on market structure could resolve ongoing jurisdictional conflicts between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the CFTC. This compromise may also create an investment-contract asset pathway, thereby enabling greater institutional participation under clearer regulatory oversight.
Macquarie expects a Senate-modified market-structure bill to pass and be submitted to conference by the end of the first quarter to mid-2026, with a comprehensive crypto law package likely to take effect soon afterward.
Momentum toward a legislative deal was further indicated by meetings on December 8, involving Democratic negotiators—including Senators Gillibrand, Warner, and Gallego—and Wall Street leaders such as Fraser, Moynihan, and Scharf.
