Markets Anticipate Fed Rate Cut Amid 2026 Leadership Shift, Bullish Signs for Crypto
Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting today. The tone and forward guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are seen as key drivers influencing sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets.
Nansen analyst Aurelie Barthere highlighted that the anticipated leadership transition in early 2026 toward Kevin Hassett is viewed as potentially bullish for digital assets. The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious, wait-and-see stance, with a terminal rate near 3.0%, heavily dependent on labor-market data which typically lags.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates an approximately 89.4% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, marking the third cut of 2025, and pushing the target federal funds rate range toward 3.75%–4.0%.
Bitcoin is facing resistance around the $91,000 level and is expected to hover near this threshold following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting rather than breaking out. Analysts anticipate a Fed liquidity boost, potentially through bond-buying-like measures, which could act as a dovish surprise and a catalyst for a sharp Bitcoin rally.
On-chain activity indicators have increased even as Bitcoin's price action remains subdued, suggesting renewed demand and possible increased activity from long-term holders.
