Met Office Forecasts Low Chance of Significant Snowfall for Christmas
The Met Office estimates there is approximately a 10% chance of noteworthy snowfall across the UK for this Christmas, with no significant snowfall expected overall. High pressure is building over the region, leading to generally drier, more settled weather despite the possibility of some showers. A strong easterly breeze will accompany temperatures reaching highs around 7°C, with nighttime lows ranging from -3°C to -4°C.
The south coast, from Devon to Cornwall, holds the greatest chance of experiencing a wintry flurry. Even a single snowflake in this area would count as a white Christmas.
Historically, a thick blanket of snow on Christmas has been rare, occurring only four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010. The most recent, in 2010, saw snow on 83% of UK weather stations. According to data from the Royal Meteorological Society, a snowflake has fallen somewhere in the UK on Christmas Day 54 times during the past 66 years.
In recent years, snowfall on Christmas Day has been uncommon; in 2023, 11% of weather stations recorded snow, while in 2022, the figure was 9%, though neither year featured lying snow on the ground. This decline in Christmas snowfall is attributed to warmer Decembers in recent decades and the broader effects of climate change. Typically, most snow days in the UK occur between January and March rather than in December.
