Midterm Tsunami Forecast Amid Waning Support for Trump and GOP Challenges in 2026
Forecasts indicate a Democratic midterm tsunami as President Trump's public support wanes, with polls suggesting significant difficulties for the GOP in the 2026 elections.
Trump's January 2025 inauguration saw pardons for January 6 participants and a sweeping expansion of executive power alongside a major policy overhaul.
A government-wide restructuring under the newly formed "department of government efficiency" (Doge), guided by Elon Musk, led to mass federal layoffs and agency dismantling. However, this restructuring collapsed following fallout with Musk.
Hardline immigration measures included mass deportations, deployment of the National Guard to cities, and the invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
Economically, the centerpiece Working Families Tax Cut Act faced criticism for shifting wealth and was linked to reductions in healthcare funding. Additionally, aggressive tariffs led to increased prices for consumers.
The administration also confronted extensive legal challenges including firing 17 inspectors general, Department of Justice investigations targeting perceived enemies, over 500 federal lawsuits, and funding freezes for prominent universities such as Harvard and Columbia.
On the foreign policy front, Trump brokered an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy for an Oval Office meeting, and courted Russian President Putin in Alaska. Military actions in the Caribbean and related controversies also marked the administration's approach.
Public opinion reflects 36% approval against 60% disapproval in Gallup polling, with youth and Latino voters shifting back to the Democratic Party. Widespread protests involving 5 million participants in June and 7 million in October, alongside numerous GOP retirements, signal a challenging path ahead for Republicans in the 2026 elections.
