Migrant Crossing Figures for 2025 Politically Toxic for PM
Small-boat crossings to the UK are projected to rise by 13% in 2025, increasing by over 4,500 compared with 2024. After 18 months in power, Sir Keir Starmer faces continued challenges on migration, a key voter concern, with limited progress expected in the coming year.
Political support for Reform UK is rising as migrants policy setbacks are viewed as failures of successive governments. Both Reform UK and the Conservative Party advocate barring asylum for illegal arrivals and leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to enhance the ability to deport individuals.
The Borders Bill, passed in December, grants police counter-terror-style powers to tackle criminal gangs involved in people smuggling. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's asylum reforms propose temporary refugee status, restricted benefits, a 20-year residency requirement before settlement, and easier deportations.
The UK government is pursuing reform of the ECHR from within, rather than leaving it, and continues to operate a one-in-one-out deportation deal with France, which has resulted in fewer than 200 deportations so far. Meanwhile, a French plan to allow police to stop boats has stalled due to health and safety concerns and union resistance.
The Rwanda deportation plan has been criticized as costly—estimated at about £700 million—with only four volunteers deported to date, leading to voter skepticism about government proposals.
