Migrant crossing figures for 2025 politically toxic for PM
Data for 2025 reveal a 13% rise in small-boat crossings, equating to about 4,500 more arrivals than in 2024. Despite 18 months in power, Keir Starmer has not achieved meaningful progress on asylum and migrant policy, which remains a priority for many voters. This increase in crossings has bolstered support for Reform UK, with Nigel Farage labeling the government's approach a disaster.
The Borders Bill, passed in December, grants police new counter-terror-style powers to tackle gangs involved in migration. Shabana Mahmood's proposed asylum reforms seek to reduce the generosity of support, impose a temporary refugee status, restrict benefits, introduce a 20-year residency requirement for permanent settlement, and ease deportations.
The government is pursuing reform of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) from within, collaborating with European partners rather than exiting the convention. The 'one-in, one-out' France deal, started in the summer, has resulted in fewer than 200 deportations to date and occasional returns to the UK. However, progress is hindered by health and safety concerns and opposition from unions.
The Rwanda policy is cited as a costly failure, costing £700 million and resulting in only four deportations, contributing to voter skepticism about government promises on migration.
