Miner Capitulation Signals Potential Bitcoin Momentum, VanEck Says
The Bitcoin network hashrate experienced its steepest 30-day decline since April 2024. This reduction in hashrate is seen as miner capitulation and indicates stress on the network, reflecting weaker profitability and increased selling pressure among miners.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,000 after a roughly 36% peak-to-trough drop from its all-time high in October. The correction appears concentrated among higher-cost or geopolitically exposed miners facing margin pressure and the dynamics related to the upcoming halving.
VanEck suggests that despite short-term weakness, falling hashrate can serve as a contrarian indicator signaling improving price momentum rather than lasting structural weakness in Bitcoin's market. Historically, a negative 90-day hashrate growth has been followed by positive 180-day Bitcoin returns in approximately 77% of observed cases.
As higher-cost miners exit, the network difficulty is expected to adjust downward, making mining easier and improving profitability. This adjustment helps ease forced selling among miners.
VanEck estimates that purchasing Bitcoin during sustained hashrate corrections enhances 180-day forward returns by about 2,400 basis points, indicating potential opportunities for investors during such periods.
