Myanmar Holds First Election Since 2021 Coup Amid China's Growing Influence
Myanmar held its first election since the 2021 coup on December 28, 2025, amid widespread condemnation from monitors and UN experts who labeled the process a sham. The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military's proxy, accounted for more than a fifth of the candidates and faced uncontested races in certain areas. Many observers expect Min Aung Hlaing to remain in power due to constitutional provisions.
The military has regained momentum in the ongoing civil war, retaking territory and expanding its ground presence across large parts of Myanmar. Central to the junta's current fortunes is the influence of China, which has employed border closures to pressure ethnic armed groups toward ceasefires and even to surrender territory, while providing diplomatic support and transferring weapons.
Recent drone technology and other military capabilities linked to China have enabled the junta to regain ground in the northern regions. China's broader strategy involves leveraging a 2,185 km (1,358-mile) border with Myanmar, making significant investments, and planning a corridor from southwest China to the Indian Ocean. However, post-coup fighting has disrupted key infrastructure projects.
China has maintained a balance in engaging both sides of the conflict, continuing weapons sales to the junta while keeping ties with armed groups opposed to the military. Beijing tacitly approved northern ethnic armed groups to attack the junta in late 2023 due to concerns about regional drug trafficking and security, facilitating weapons access across the border.
China's stance has evolved from an initially muted reaction to increased displeasure over Myanmar's instability and economic chaos. Its border policies have shifted to encourage armed groups toward compromise, warning against broader regional chaos if the junta collapses. Analysts suggest that if the junta fails to capitalize on opportunities or if infrastructure projects stall, China may reduce its sustained backing of Myanmar's military leadership.
