Myanmar Junta Prepares Election Amid Exclusion and Conflict
Myanmar is set to hold elections on 28 December 2025, marking the first vote since the 2021 military coup. However, about one-third of the country will be excluded from voting, with 56 townships and around 3,000 wards or village tracts cancelled from the electoral map amid ongoing fighting and intensified conflict.
The election will be conducted in three phases and contested by 57 parties, most of which are linked to or dependent on the military. Only six parties operate nationwide. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) fields the largest slate. Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) has been dissolved, and many ethnic parties have also been disbanded; 57% of the parties that contested in 2020 no longer exist.
The military junta describes the vote as one for the people, while Western governments and the United Nations label it a sham. China supports the election, viewing it as a path to stability and continues to provide pivotal backing for the junta, including bolstering battlefield momentum. Beijing has cut cross-border supplies to adversaries in northern areas and influenced shifts in territory held by ethnic armed groups.
Violence and conflict have intensified in 2025. Air and drone strikes have increased by about 30% compared to 2024. There has been a hospital strike in Rakhine state and an approximate 26% rise in conscription-related abductions. Many youths have fled areas under military control.
The junta has introduced a new election protection law criminalizing criticism of the election, imposing minimum three-year sentences and even the death penalty. Since July, more than 200 people have been arrested under this law. Residents in Yangon report coercive door-to-door voting persuasion efforts.
Analysts warn the election offers only an illusion of choice and is unlikely to result in a civilian government. Ceasefires following the vote are considered tactical moves rather than genuine steps toward democracy.
