Myanmar's 2025 Election Dominated by Military Influence and Chinese Involvement
Myanmar is holding its first election since the 2021 coup, with the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party dominating the race. True opposition is minimal, and some candidates are effectively uncontested. The military junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, is constitutionally positioned to assume a top role—whether president, commander-in-chief, or parliamentary speaker—and is expected to exert significant influence regardless of the electoral outcome.
China's support plays a decisive role for the military, providing weapons transfers, drone technology, and diplomatic backing that have helped the junta regain ground amid the ongoing civil war. Beijing has used border closures to pressure northern ethnic armed groups into ceasefires and to revert control of territory favorable to the military. These actions align with China's broader regional objectives, including protecting a potential corridor linking southwestern China with the Indian Ocean.
Chinese infrastructure projects in Myanmar have repeatedly been disrupted by fighting along the border. Over time, China’s stance has evolved from a muted response to a more engaged approach, balancing its ties with both the junta and ethnic armed groups. This strategic positioning aims to prevent greater chaos in the event of the regime's collapse.
As part of its effort to present the election as a controlled, internationally recognized process, China plans to send election observers alongside Russia and Vietnam. Chinese officials have publicly called for domestic peace and reconciliation in Myanmar.
Analysts warn that if ceasefires falter or infrastructure development stalls, China may reassess its backing of the military regime. Meanwhile, anti-China sentiment has grown within Myanmar as the conflict continues.
