Myanmar's 2025 Election Marked by Military Control and Chinese Influence
Myanmar is holding its first election since the 2021 military coup amid ongoing civil conflict and a resurgence of military power. The election, widely condemned by monitors and UN experts as a sham, is set against a backdrop where China plays a decisive external role.
China's shifting support has significantly tilted the balance in favor of Myanmar's military regime. Beijing has employed border closures to pressure northern ethnic armed groups into ceasefires and territorial concessions while expanding diplomatic support and continuing weapon transfers to the junta. China seeks to establish a regional corridor from southwestern China to the Indian Ocean and remains a major investor in Myanmar despite disruptions to infrastructure caused by the fighting.
Beijing’s response to the instability has fluctuated—from muted early reactions and disapproval of the unrest to concern that a collapse of the junta could lead to greater chaos. Currently, China supports the election process, with observers including China, Russia, and Vietnam slated to monitor the polls.
Previously, some northern ethnic armed groups allowed offensives against the junta, but China has since recalibrated its influence, pressing these groups to back down. The election field is dominated by the military-linked Union Solidarity and Development Party. Min Aung Hlaing, the military leader, is constitutionally positioned to assume another top role following the election. The military has pledged economic progress benefiting China and support for related projects.
