Nearly $4 Billion Outflows from U.S.-Listed Spot Bitcoin ETFs in Oct-Nov Reflect Basis Trade Unwind, Not Capitulation: Research Analyst
Nearly $4 billion in outflows occurred from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs since mid-October as the Bitcoin price fell 35% from $125,000 to the low $80,000s.
From October 1 to November 26 (53 days), Grayscale accounted for about $923 million of outflows, representing 53.2% of the total, followed by 21Shares and Grayscale Mini. BlackRock accounted for most recent weekly outflows, while Fidelity posted inflows and smaller ETFs remained steady.
An Amberdata analysis attributes these outflows to the unwind of basis trades—arbitrage positions between ETF shares and futures—rather than broad investor panic.
Basis spreads collapsed during this period, with the 30-day annualized basis narrowing from 6.63% to 4.46%, and approximately 93% of days were below the 5% breakeven level.
Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest declined about 37.7%, roughly $4.23 billion from peak to trough, aligning with ETF sales and futures short covers.
Despite outflows, total ETF holdings remained robust at about 1.43 million BTC, indicating continued long-term institutional participation.
The analysis concludes there was no capitulation; remaining ETF ownership reflects sticky institutional capital and a cleaner, more conviction-driven market with potential for a rally.
