Negotiations Between Russia, Ukraine, and the US Show Progress with Challenges Ahead
Negotiations involving Russia, the United States, and Ukraine are reportedly moving closer to progress, with a pivotal meeting planned for 6 January with European leaders in France to advance talks.
A central issue remains the fate of the Donbas region. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks full control over Donetsk and Luhansk, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed a Ukrainian withdrawal to create a demilitarized or free economic zone, with Russian forces retreating a similar distance. This plan, however, would place the fortress towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk under threat and impact approximately 300,000 people.
Zelensky’s compromise would also require Russian withdrawal from other Ukrainian areas including Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv, alongside the deployment of an international force to police the contact line. Without any movement on Donetsk, a deal appears unlikely. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates it could take until August 2027 for Russia to conquer the remaining part of Donbas.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar has been under Russian control since March 2022. Its six reactors are currently in cold shutdown, and restarting them would need significant investment, including rebuilding the Kakhovka dam. The United States proposes a joint management model involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, potentially with a 50-50 power distribution.
However, mutual distrust between the parties hampers the negotiation process. Zelensky has expressed a lack of trust towards Putin and Russia, while Moscow accuses Kyiv of drone attacks that lack verifiable evidence. This suspicion undermines prospects for breakthrough agreements.
Security guarantees also remain a contentious issue. Ukraine seeks NATO-style guarantees and maintains an 800,000-strong military, whereas Russia rejects the presence of European troops on Ukrainian soil. Discussions further include a proposed joint investment fund and the potential use of Russia’s €210 billion in European assets, but Moscow resists releasing these funds.
