Nvidia to Report Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Amid High Expectations and Geopolitical Challenges
Nvidia is set to release its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings after the bell on November 19. Consensus estimates project revenue of $54.9 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25. The company’s stock closed at $181.36, about 14% below the October 29 all-time high of $212.19. Options markets imply a 7-8% price swing expected following the results, potentially translating into a $320 billion market value move.
Data-center revenue is anticipated to reach roughly $49 billion this quarter, driven largely by demand for the Hopper chip and the ramp-up of the new Blackwell platform. CEO Jensen Huang described demand from hyperscalers and foundation-model builders as "incredible." Analysts remain bullish ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report. Stifel recently raised its price target to $250, and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called Nvidia foundational to the ongoing AI revolution. Over the last 21 quarters, Nvidia has beaten earnings expectations 19 times.
Looking to the fourth quarter, guidance is expected to suggest revenue around $61.5 billion. Any guidance falling below this figure could lead to a selloff. However, Nvidia faces geopolitical headwinds, including exclusion of H20 chip sales to China due to export restrictions and new Chinese regulations requiring domestic AI chips in state-funded data centers.
The broader market environment is challenging, with the Nasdaq down over 4% in November amid fading chances of a Fed rate cut in December and ongoing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket price in a 96% chance that Nvidia will beat earnings expectations.
