Plaid Cymru Victory in Caerphilly Byelection Signals Political Realignment as Reform UK Faces Backlash
Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle won the Caerphilly Senedd byelection on October 24, defeating Reform UK's Llŷr Powell, despite Reform UK’s expectations of a sweeping victory. The contest highlighted a backlash against Reform UK’s disinformation and hard-edged immigration messaging, which many locals and members of the Ukrainian community criticized as divisive and untrue.
Ukrainian refugee Yuliia Bond and others in Caerphilly emphasized their integration into the community, with over 80% of the nation of sanctuary funds reportedly directed toward Ukrainian refugees. The community also planted a gratitude orchard in the town as a symbol of welcome and unity.
Plaid Cymru’s grassroots campaign, which included extensive door-knocking led by ward captain Judith Pritchard, focused on positive policies and the promotion of Welsh regional identity. A turning point in the campaign occurred during a BBC debate when a community member with a mixed-race family challenged Reform UK’s rhetoric, underscoring Caerphilly’s local welcome and diversity.
Experts note that Caerphilly’s political dynamics are distinctive and should not be viewed simply as a reflection of English politics. Politics professor Jac Larner pointed out that the May Senedd elections, which will operate under a new proportional system, could disrupt the prevailing two-horse race narrative.
The byelection outcome is being seen as a potential signal of political realignment in Wales. With the upcoming May elections and Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, aiming to become the largest party in Wales, this result adds fresh uncertainty to the contest between Plaid Cymru and Labour.
