Political Landscape and Key Global Issues Shaping UK and International Politics into 2026
Reform UK has risen in prominence under Nigel Farage, with the May 2025 elections granting control over local government funding and pushing immigration policy, prompting Labour to treat Reform as its main opposition. Meanwhile, Labour leader Keir Starmer's authority is eroding amid backbench anger over welfare reforms, which led ministers to drop controversial plans due to risk of a government vote defeat. A problematic budget compounded difficulties, especially as the OBR published financial figures before the chancellor spoke, and minister Reeves's tearful moment negatively affected investor sentiment.
On the international front, the return of 'Trump 2.0' to the White House has significantly impacted international politics. Trump has pressured Europe to increase defense spending, brokered a ceasefire between Gaza and Israel, and stirred talk of a possible global trade confrontation, keeping UK politics on edge. At the same time, the left-wing is fracturing under Corbynista influence, with infighting and disagreement weakening a coherent broader left opposition.
In the electoral arena, the 2025 Caerphilly by-election saw Plaid Cymru successfully stop Reform UK, while the Greens are gaining attention with leaders like Zack Polanski, Mothin Ali, and Rachel Millward guiding the party in a new direction. Looking ahead to the mega-May 2026 elections, there are mixed signals: the Liberal Democrats remain optimistic after local results; Reform UK is variously touted to either trounce rivals or underperform according to different assessments; widespread talk of a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer persists, yet no clear successor consensus has emerged.
Finally, the future of Ukraine and European security critically hinge on the terms of any potential Ukrainian peace settlement and the American stance. This dynamic makes the US-UK relationship and the global economy essential factors in the political and strategic landscape leading into 2026.
