Political Landscape Shifts Ahead of 2026 Mega-May Elections with Reform UK Surge and Labour Challenges
In 2025, Reform UK experienced a significant surge, gaining local-government funding power and shifting the opposition balance, leading Labour to treat Reform as the main opposition rather than the Conservatives. This shift occurred amid waning authority of Labour leader Keir Starmer, who faced criticism after ministers dropped a planned welfare reform and a controversial budget process, raising questions about Labour's governance despite its large parliamentary majority.
The 2025 budget episode was marked by the early release of budget figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which affected market sentiment and altered the political narrative. Concurrently, a new Corbynista-left faction emerged within Labour but has been plagued by internal disagreements, highlighting ongoing tensions within the party's left wing.
The return of Donald Trump 2.0 impacted UK and European politics by pressuring Europe to increase defence spending, facilitating a Gaza-Israel ceasefire, and fueling discussions about a broader global trade dispute. The trajectory of the Ukraine conflict remains uncertain, contingent on the terms of a peace settlement and the stance of the United States, with significant implications for European security and the costs borne by Ukraine and its allies.
Looking ahead to the Mega-May 2026 elections, predictions vary: some anticipate strong performances by Reform UK, optimism among the Liberal Democrats following local results, potential gains for the Greens and Plaid Cymru, and caution from some Conservatives who warn Reform UK might underperform. Many sources expect a leadership challenge for Keir Starmer after the elections, with discussions around replacing him but no clear consensus on a successor.
