Political Shifts and Accountability Challenges in 2025 and 2026
In 2025 and looking ahead to 2026, political landscapes in the UK, US, and Israel show significant shifts and calls for accountability. In the UK, Reform UK rose in 2025, influencing opposition dynamics and pressuring Labour on immigration policy. The leadership authority of Keir Starmer weakened after plans to reform welfare were dropped, impacting the government's direction. The 2025 budget saw the Office for Budget Responsibility publishing figures before Chancellor Rachel Reeves' speech, which included an emotional moment in the Commons and sparked reactions among markets and investors, signaling a shift in financial sentiment.
Globally, the influence of "Trump 2.0" has affected UK and European politics, including Europe’s defense spending and the Gaza-Israel ceasefire. A new left-wing faction centered on Corbynism emerged but fractured due to internal disputes, affecting left unity. Predictions for 2026 indicate significant political contests in the UK, including mega-May elections with Reform UK potentially strong, Liberal Democrats optimistic, Greens rising, and Plaid Cymru having halted Reform in a recent by-election. Speculation about a leadership challenge to Keir Starmer by 2026 persists, with no clear successor and uncertainty around the Prime Minister’s tenure. Meanwhile, the Ukraine peace settlement terms and the US stance toward Ukraine are expected to heavily influence European security and UK relations in the coming year.
In the United States, 2026 is described as a year of reckoning for Donald Trump, with his fate connected to the November 3 midterm elections. A Democratic House could gain subpoena power to investigate Trump’s tariffs and alleged corruption, potentially leading to a third impeachment trial. Trump's efforts to avoid accountability include actions that make the political environment abnormal, such as potential gerrymandering and voting restrictions. Additionally, a Supreme Court ruling recently limited his deployment of troops in Democratic-led cities.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces elections by October 2026 amid demands for accountability related to the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack, which resulted in significant casualties and damage in Gaza. Netanyahu has not apologized or established a commission of inquiry, making the elections potentially the only route to accountability. His continued confrontations with the judiciary, independent media, and corruption concerns mirror tactics seen in other regimes like those of Trump and Viktor Orbán, which are characterized by efforts to avoid accountability through power retention.
In Britain, the Labour government is expected to lose ground to several parties amid wider political changes. Nigel Farage is highlighted as a central figure in Brexit, with little expectation of accountability for Brexit in 2026, although other leaders might face scrutiny. Overall, 2025 and 2026 are marked by shifting political dynamics, electoral contests, and a growing push for holding leaders to account across multiple democracies.
