Political Shifts and Uncertainty in UK and Global Affairs in 2025-2026
In 2025, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, rose significantly, gaining influence in local government and polling momentum. This shift prompted Labour to treat Reform as its main opposition. Meanwhile, Labour leader Keir Starmer faced weakened authority after Parliament abandoned welfare reform plans and tax-funded budget decisions, highlighting vulnerabilities in his leadership.
Several notable domestic moments marked the year, including Labour minister Steve Reed appearing at a Labour conference amid MAGA-style symbolism, Labour's Rachel Reeves crying in the Commons, and an error by the Office for Budget Responsibility releasing budget figures ahead of the Chancellor's announcement.
Internationally, Trump 2.0's return to the White House in 2025 and his demands on Europe for increased defense spending, coupled with his role in Middle East diplomacy, influenced political concerns in the UK and globally about potential future actions.
Looking ahead to 2026, the focus turns to the mega-May elections across England, Wales, and Scotland. Some predict Reform UK will outperform its rivals, while others anticipate under-performance, alongside gains for the Liberal Democrats and continued impact from Plaid Cymru's past by-elections.
Labour faces leadership uncertainties surrounding these May elections, with speculation about a possible leadership change despite no clear successor, even as Downing Street attempts to bolster Starmer's appeal.
A central issue in 2026 is the terms of a Ukrainian peace settlement, upon which European security and the economy depend. The outcome hinges on U.S. support and attitude toward Ukraine, with the potential to end the war but also to create future tensions.
