Prediction Markets Surge Past $2B Weekly Volume in 2025 with Mainstream Adoption and Regulatory Shifts
In 2025, prediction markets experienced significant growth, surpassing $2 billion in weekly volume across major platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Myriad. This surge coincided with a regulatory shift as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) moved from hostile enforcement to engaging in regulatory roundtables, marked notably by a February CFTC roundtable and comments from Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham addressing previous legal uncertainties.
Mainstream adoption accelerated with high-profile collaborations, including deals with CNN, CNBC, Google, and signings with the NHL and UFC. Cultural recognition was evidenced by an episode of South Park, signaling broad interest. Traditional financial and betting sector players entered the space, with Robinhood, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Gemini launching services, though analysts consider their entrance late compared to Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket made industry moves such as acquiring QCX for $112 million to facilitate its US market return, while ICE's $2 billion investment valued Polymarket at approximately $9 billion. In March, a Robinhood-Kalshi partnership around March Madness was announced following increased industry advocacy, with Kalshi and Polymarket participating in a SEC-CFTC roundtable in Washington, DC.
On the blockchain front, Limitless raised $10 million on the Base platform and Myriad reported a tenfold volume increase in just three months alongside signing a Trust Wallet distribution deal covering multiple networks including BNB Chain and Ethereum layer-2 solutions.
Despite these positive developments, regulatory challenges continued at the state level, particularly in New York and Nevada. However, Gemini secured the CFTC's approval in December to offer prediction markets, reflecting progressive regulatory acceptance.
Market projections by Certuity estimate that total trading on prediction markets could reach $95.5 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.8%, underscoring rapid expansion prospects for the industry.
