Reeves' Pre-Budget News Conference and Tax Receipts Disclosure
On 4 November, Reeves held an extraordinary pre-Budget news conference to set the stage for a Budget involving difficult choices. She signaled big tax rises, measures to address the cost of living, and a commitment to maintain long-term investment spending, while seeking additional headroom within her self-imposed fiscal rules.
At the same time, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was expected to revise down productivity growth, a factor that significantly impacted the fiscal numbers and trade-offs Reeves faced.
Though the statements made during the conference were not factually incorrect on their own, Reeves was aware of additional information that she did not disclose at that time. Specifically, tax receipts were later revealed to be much stronger than anticipated, which offset the expected productivity decline.
The Treasury had knowledge of the higher tax receipts at the time of the conference, and this information was made public later when reports indicated that income tax rates would remain unchanged in the Budget.
The main controversy centers not on outright deception but on selective disclosure and the framing in subsequent briefings to markets that tax receipts were stronger than initially suggested.
The Treasury defends Reeves, explaining that she faced constraints regarding fiscal headroom and data limitations in the financial models, with subsequent numbers justifying a cautious approach.
Former OBR chief Richard Hughes was unavailable to provide further comment to MPs at the time of the article.
