Reform UK's Volatile Rise and Challenges Ahead
In spring 2025, Reform UK saw its polling surge to lead with YouGov reporting 29% and More in Common 33%. However, by December, YouGov's figures showed a decline to 26%, with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and a combined Lib Dem/Green vote near 30%.
The party has experienced significant instability, having had three chairs in less than two years. Additionally, the leader of Reform UK in Wales is currently imprisoned, highlighting weak party depth and a lack of professional cabinet-style discipline.
Reform UK is described largely as a one-man show, centered around Nigel Farage. This contrasts with UK politics' typical preference for electing parties and programmes rather than presidential-style figures.
Key figures within Reform UK include Nick Candy, regarded as a de facto shadow chancellor; dissident ex-Tory MPs Andrea Jenkyns, Ann Widdecombe, and Danny Kruger; as well as the party chief whip Lee Anderson, who previously stood for both Labour and Conservative.
Farage's international connections have attracted attention, including visits to Mar-a-Lago and ties to figures such as Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, and JD Vance. Notably, Farage has distanced himself from Trump's more extreme associates. Within the UK, Trump sentiment stands at approximately 22% in favor and 72% against.
The party's policy focus remains heavily centered on immigration. There are ongoing questions about the longer-term appeal of this stance, with potential shifts toward countryside issues and net-zero subsidies. A Musk-like spending approach is seen as a potential risk.
The author predicts a hung parliament in the forthcoming election and does not expect Farage or Reform UK to emerge on top. The May local elections are viewed as an important barometer of Reform UK's volatility.
