Rising Russian Casualties and Recruitment Amid Ongoing Ukraine Conflict in 2025
Russian losses in the Ukraine conflict are increasing at an unprecedented rate in 2025, with obituary notifications up by 40% compared to the previous year. BBC Russian, Mediazona, and volunteer efforts have confirmed nearly 160,000 Russian fatalities by name, although the actual death toll is believed to be substantially higher, estimated between 243,000 and 352,000, accounting for 45–65% of total losses.
Obituary data displays peaks corresponding with key diplomatic events in 2025, including the February Trump–Putin talks, the August Alaska meeting, a scheduled but ultimately cancelled US-Russia summit in October, and a 28-point peace proposal by the US in November. In October alone, an average of about 322 obituaries were published per day, roughly double the levels observed in 2024.
An example highlighting recruitment dynamics is Murat Mukashev, an anti-war activist who joined the defense ministry contract under a 2024 law and died on 11 June 2025 fighting in the Kharkiv region. Since 2023’s Avdiivka battles, volunteer recruits have constituted a growing proportion of Russian forces, rising from 15% of deaths in 2024 to about one in three in 2025.
By October 2025, approximately 336,000 Russians had signed up as volunteers this year, averaging over 30,000 recruits per month. This recruitment surge aims to offset losses rather than signal a large-scale mobilization.
Different figures have been cited by NATO and allied sources: Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte estimates about 25,000 Russian soldiers killed per month, implying recruitment may be exceeding casualties. NATO overall estimates suggest 1.1 million Russian personnel have been killed or wounded, with one official specifically citing around 250,000 fatalities.
Regarding Ukraine, President Zelenskiy’s report from February 2024 cites 46,000 battlefield deaths and 380,000 wounded. The BBC’s cross-checks suggest this death toll could be as high as approximately 140,000, with tens of thousands more listed as missing or captive.
