Scotland Prepares for 2026 Holyrood Election Amid Political Shifts and Key Issues
The 2026 Holyrood election year in Scotland sees SNP leader John Swinney aiming for a fifth term to maintain control of key services such as the NHS, education, and policing. The SNP currently leads in recent polls despite their 2024 Westminster defeat to Scottish Labour. Labour, led by Anas Sarwar, pledges a new direction focused on public services to close the gap. Meanwhile, the surge of Reform UK under Nigel Farage is reshaping the race, challenging both Labour and the Scottish Conservatives. Some Conservatives describe Reform UK as a divisive force that could inadvertently support Swinney, while Reform UK emphasizes policies including tax cuts, deregulation, and reducing wasteful spending.
The SNP continues to integrate the issue of independence throughout its campaign to appeal to pro-independence voters, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats also seen as potential areas of growth. The draft Scottish budget, due on 13 January, plans to fund anti-poverty measures by ending the UK two-child cap. As a minority government, the SNP will seek support from the opposition, with anticipated funding for colleges and cost-of-living measures. Possible adjustments to tax thresholds are expected while tax rates remain unchanged.
The Holyrood election on May 7, 2026, coincides with elections to the Welsh Parliament and some English local authorities, which together serve as a UK-wide test of Labour leader Keir Starmer. Broader UK-wide issues influencing Scottish politics include the possible Rosebank oil and gas development decision, approval for a Chinese wind-turbine project at Ardersier, and immigration concerns. There is also potential debate over the location of a new Scottish munitions facility.
Significant political changes accompany the election; First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will step down in 2026, and nearly a third of Holyrood's 129 MSPs are expected to leave, indicating a markedly different Parliament post-election. Other political legal matters include the embezzlement charge against Peter Murrell and the suspension of Colin Smyth over allegations involving indecent images and voyeurism.
