Signs of Fatigue but Downside Likely Limited as Bitcoin Tumbles Out of Trading Range
Bitcoin traded around $86,000 in U.S. markets, down about 3% over 24 hours after remaining between $88,000 and $92,000 for over two weeks. Other cryptocurrencies also declined, with XRP, ETH, and SOL falling more than 5% to $1.8981, $2,941.87, and $126.02 respectively. Crypto-related stocks saw even larger drops: Coinbase fell about 6.4%; Circle, Galaxy Digital, and Strategy declined over 8%; Bullish dropped around 2.5%; and eToro decreased roughly 3.7%. U.S. equities also edged lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.6% and the S&P 500 down 0.15%.
Wintermute observed signs of fatigue across risk assets and suggested that declines should remain orderly in the absence of forced selling amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve recently delivered a 25 basis point rate cut accompanied by cautious forward guidance, projecting only one rate cut in 2026 compared to market expectations of around three; this discrepancy contributes to ongoing market volatility. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates this week and unwind over $500 billion in ETF holdings, raising concerns about global liquidity and the yen carry trade.
Analysts at Bitfinex noted changes in bitcoin’s market structure, with the traditional four-year cycle no longer dominant and BTC issuance below 1%, reducing the influence of halving events. They indicated that bitcoin declines tend to be shallower as ETFs, corporates, and sovereigns absorb supply, and BTC may mirror gold’s price movements with a lag of 100–150 trading days. Paul Howard of Wincent projected a more constructive 2026 but cautioned that new all-time highs are unlikely before Easter. He highlighted that ongoing regulatory changes in 2025 and looser policy will underpin continued crypto development.
