Simon Jenkins Supports Keir Starmer Despite Unreliable Polls and Uncertain Election Outcome
Simon Jenkins argues that Keir Starmer remains the best person for the job of Prime Minister despite gloomy polling figures.
He notes that polls are unreliable in a multi-party landscape, where parties like Reform have 14% support yet only 5 MPs, while the Liberal Democrats hold about 12% of the vote but 72 MPs.
Labour's 2024 election result showed about a 34% share and roughly half a million fewer votes than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019; Jenkins attributes Labour's majority mainly to the first-past-the-post system rather than broad popular support.
The next general election is unpredictable, and a hung parliament is likely; local elections in May are unlikely to be reliable predictors of the national picture.
Starmer's record includes restrained public borrowing and early moves to reverse Brexit consequences, such as reopening the Erasmus program.
The International Monetary Fund projects the UK will be the second strongest growing economy in the G7 after the United States next year.
In foreign policy, Jenkins describes much as largely for show, though he acknowledges Starmer has handled the defence-spending lobby and that Downing Street's operation is somewhat ropey but sufficiently supported by backbenchers.
There is no obvious Labour leader ready to supersede Starmer; no clear rival has emerged among other figures such as Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, or Andy Burnham.
Starmer is viewed as having time on his side and likely to survive as leader going forward.
