Skepticism Grows Over Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal Amid Trump Claims
Former President Donald Trump claimed at Mar-a-Lago that a Ukraine-Russia peace deal was about 95% completed, with the remaining 5% dependent on Vladimir Putin's agreement. Despite this assertion, skepticism remains high as earlier projected timelines for the deal, including Thanksgiving and Christmas, have passed without progress.
Russia has stated that an end to the conflict hinges on addressing its perceived root causes, which suggests Moscow seeks significant influence over Ukraine's future. Meanwhile, Ukraine faces a harsh winter but shows no sign of readiness to capitulate, and a durable peace remains out of reach.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that the US had agreed to provide strong 15-year security guarantees for Ukraine. However, the mechanisms for these guarantees are unclear, may require Western commitments, and could likely be vetoed by Russia or contingent on its compliance. Effective guarantees would need to be imposed on Russia rather than negotiated with it.
There is little evidence of close US engagement with Kyiv on the ground; notably, no US officials greeted Zelenskyy in Miami, a stark contrast to the high-profile Kremlin welcome afforded to Putin elsewhere.
If no ceasefire or peace deal materializes, Ukraine may endure the conflict until changes occur in Russia's political or economic climate or be compelled to accept harsher terms.
