Standard Chartered Lowers 2025 Bitcoin Price Forecast to $100,000 Amid Slowing Institutional Demand
Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 downward to $100,000, while extending its long-term target to 2030 at $500,000, a shift from the previous 2028 outlook. This downgrade is attributed to the conclusion of aggressive corporate buying, exemplified by companies like MicroStrategy, and a deceleration in institutional adoption through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The quarterly Bitcoin ETF inflows have dropped to about 50,000 BTC, marking the lowest volume since the introduction of spot ETFs, and a significant decline from previous averages near 450,000 BTC per quarter including ETFs and direct access trusts. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered notes that with the end of a major demand source, future Bitcoin price appreciation is now largely dependent on periodic ETF inflows.
Market participants also face uncertainty due to U.S. Federal Reserve policies. Potential expectations of rate cuts and the prospect of Hassett becoming Fed chair before March 2026 are factors that might encourage easier monetary policies and influence cryptocurrency sentiment.
Currently, Bitcoin trades near $90,600, reflecting a 1.3% decline over the past 24 hours, moving within a narrow range ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Kendrick dismisses traditional halving-cycle models, indicating that crypto market downturns or "crypto winters" are considered a relic of the past. Supporting this view, analytics firm Myriad estimates only a 6% probability of another crypto winter before February 2026.
