Stock Market's Santa Tradition Offers Hope to Battered Bitcoin Bulls
The Santa rally pattern, characterized by the S&P 500's tendency to rally in the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, has historically been a positive indicator for markets. Since 2005, the S&P 500 has gained during this period 15 times and fallen five times, averaging a 0.58% increase per period. More broadly, since the 1950s, the Santa period has risen about 77% of the time and has never declined three years in a row, although the index dipped in the last two Santa periods.
This seasonal bullish pattern could potentially lift Bitcoin sentiment and prices, as cryptocurrency markets increasingly correlate with equities through ETFs and institutional adoption. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90,068.51 and is on track for its worst fourth quarter since 2022.
Bitcoin's own Santa rally history is mixed. Since 2011, the average move during the Santa period is a gain of 7.9%, with notable gains of 33% in 2011 and 46% in 2016, but also declines of 14% in 2014 and 10% in 2021. Meanwhile, gold has significantly outperformed during this period, with a cumulative return of 95% since 2005. The only slight negative year for gold was 2023, and it currently trades above $4,400 per ounce.
Gold's strength over the Santa rally period coincides with near-record levels for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin trading roughly 30% below its peak. These insights are based on data from TheMarketStats.
Article by James Van Straten, edited by Omkar Godbole, dated December 22, 2025.
