Strategy's mNAV Nears Crucial Threshold Amid Bitcoin Market Volatility
As of January 2, 2026, the Strategy's market NAV (mNAV) stands at approximately 1.02, hovering close to the critical threshold of 1.0. Falling below this threshold would imply that Strategy is valued less than its Bitcoin reserves, which could prompt forced selling or increased volatility in its stock.
Strategy currently holds 672,497 BTC, the largest corporate stash acquired since August 2020 at an average cost of about $75,000 per coin. With Bitcoin trading near $90,000, these holdings are valued at approximately $60.7 billion, representing around a 20% unrealized gain. However, the company's market capitalization is about $45 billion, with a diluted valuation near $50 billion, indicating a discount compared to its underlying assets and posing a risk of dilution if new equity is issued.
Based on enterprise-value calculations, Strategy's mNAV is just under 1.0. Recently, the company raised $747.8 million through an at-the-market (ATM) offering to fund additional Bitcoin purchases and mitigate near-term funding risks. The reserve now covers roughly 21 months of dividend and interest obligations.
Executives have stated that selling Bitcoin would be a last resort, only if alternative financing options close and if the asset-base valuation falls below holdings. Should Bitcoin's price fall to around Strategy's average acquisition price of about $74,000, the value of holdings would drop below cost, potentially testing investor confidence and heightening volatility.
The stock has suffered significant declines, falling over 60% in the past six months and approximately 50% in 2025, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq-100. This performance has fueled ongoing debate about whether Strategy operates more as an investment vehicle than as a conventional business.
