Tensions Escalate Between Saudi Arabia and UAE Over Yemen's Southern Transitional Council
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seeks independence for southern Yemen, has become a central point of tension between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has accused the UAE of threatening its national security, raising concerns over the risk of a civil war erupting in southern Yemen, with the possibility of spillover instabilities extending to Sudan and the Horn of Africa.
The STC has expanded its control into the Hadramaut and al-Mahra regions, nearly securing the former South Yemen territory along with its valuable oilfields—a development that took Riyadh by surprise. In response, Saudi Arabia has sought to isolate both the UAE and the STC, urging the council's withdrawal and emphasizing that without international backing, southern Yemen's push for recognition will not succeed.
Despite the UAE's withdrawal of a small number of counter-terrorism forces from Yemen, it has signaled continued and sustained support for the STC. The UAE’s involvement reflects its long-term ambitions for regional influence, including securing access to crucial shipping lanes and economic opportunities, with the STC serving as its strategic vehicle.
The STC gained partial legitimacy in 2019 by obtaining seats on Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council; however, it has historically favored federalist demands over more inclusive negotiations. Analysts warn that the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could ultimately benefit the Houthi movement and resembles previous conflicts among Gulf states, potentially reshaping Yemen's future and broader regional dynamics.
Meanwhile, Western governments have mostly refrained from publicly criticizing the UAE and are generally perceived as supporting a unified Yemeni state championed by Saudi Arabia.
