Tesla Lowers 2025 Delivery Forecasts Amid Market and Political Challenges
Tesla has forecasted its 2025 vehicle deliveries at 1.64 million, down from 1.79 million in 2024, signaling a notable decline in expected output.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, deliveries are expected to reach 423,000 units, representing a 16% decrease compared with the same quarter in 2024.
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest Tesla will deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 3 million by 2029. These projections fall short of CEO Elon Musk's goal of reaching 4 million deliveries by the end of 2027.
These forecast figures originate from analysts featured in Tesla’s newly introduced "consensus" section on its investor website.
Notably, the Bloomberg-compiled consensus anticipates Q4 2025 deliveries to be around 440,907, which is higher than Tesla's internal forecast of 423,000.
Despite these relatively lower output numbers, Tesla's market capitalization remains around $1.4 trillion, surpassing the combined value of the next 30 largest carmakers, even though its production volume is less than 20% of Toyota's.
Elon Musk's personal wealth is estimated at about $623 billion, bolstered by investor optimism tied to Tesla's potential leadership in self-driving technology and robotics.
However, Tesla faces political challenges impacting demand, including controversies related to Musk being a Trump donor and the scrapping of subsidies for electric vehicles in 2024.
