Thanksgiving Air Travel Expected to Be Normal Following US Government Reopen
Thanksgiving air travel is anticipated to proceed normally after the US government reopened and air traffic controllers returned to work. The recent shutdown had caused thousands of flight cancellations as some controllers and TSA staff worked without pay amid the crisis. The Department of Transportation (DOT) announced that 70% of back pay for controllers will be issued within 24 to 48 hours of the shutdown's end, with the remainder expected a week later.
Data from Cirium shows a decrease in cancellations and delays this week, and experts suggest that Thanksgiving travel should not be affected. However, the industry faced pre-existing staffing shortages before the shutdown due to retirements and training gaps. Approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 TSA staff worked without pay during the shutdown.
To ensure safety during absences, the FAA ordered a 10% reduction in flights at the 40 busiest airports on November 6. During that weekend, about 7% of departures were canceled compared to the typical 1%. Staffing trigger points requiring further reductions dropped significantly from 81 on November 8 to 4 midweek. Subsequently, the FAA suspended additional flight reductions and maintained a 6% cut.
In response to the crisis, then-President Trump pledged a $10,000 bonus for controllers who continued working, while Governor Kristi Noem pledged a similar bonus for TSA officers who showed up; however, the criteria for eligibility were not specified. Despite the return of staff and resumption of duties, a significant long-term shortage remains, with about 10,800 controllers employed—approximately 3,800 below the FAA’s target. Achieving full staffing levels may take two to three years, with additional risks stemming from weather conditions and pilot availability.
