The Real Reason for Donald Trump's Venezuela Exploits
A Sky News analysis by Ed Conway, published on December 11, 2025, explores the underlying motives behind the United States' increased military pressure on Venezuela beyond the publicly stated concern over drug production. While former President Donald Trump cited Venezuela's drug production as the main rationale for US actions in the Caribbean, the analysis suggests a significant oil-based motive.
Venezuela holds some of the world's largest heavy crude oil reserves, ranking alongside Canada and Russia in this regard. These heavy crude reserves are particularly relevant for US Gulf Coast refineries in Texas and Louisiana, which are largely configured to process heavy crude oil rather than lighter grades. Despite the domestic US oil production being predominantly light crude due to the shale boom, heavy crude remains essential and must be imported.
The US imports well over 6,000 barrels per day of heavy crude to supply these refineries. Venezuela sits as the 21st largest oil producer globally, though its output has been depressed under the Chavez and Maduro regimes. The chemistry of oil — including the distinction between light, medium, and heavy grades — explains refinery compatibility and the strategic importance of Venezuelan oil to US energy security.
This analysis provides a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical and economic factors shaping US policy toward Venezuela beyond the publicly stated narratives.
