Top Security Expert Warns U.S. Could Burn Through Key Missiles in a Week During Taiwan Conflict
Seth Jones has warned that in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, the United States could exhaust its long-range missile stockpiles after about one week, risking an inability to sustain a protracted war. Jones highlights that the U.S. industrial base currently lags behind China's wartime buildup. China is reportedly on a wartime footing, possessing a large missile force and a massive shipbuilding sector. In contrast, the U.S. suffers from long acquisition timelines, aging shipyards, and constraining contracting rules, limiting its rapid production capabilities.
China's economy is roughly the size of the U.S. economy and is deeply integrated globally, bolstering its wartime resources. Jones emphasizes that munitions stockpiles and production throughput are central to the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy should a war over Taiwan erupt. Despite China's significant military strengths, it has vulnerabilities, particularly in undersea warfare, where U.S. attack submarines and unmanned underwater vehicles could threaten Chinese operations.
To address these challenges, Jones advocates for the U.S. to adopt a 'wartime footing' across the Pentagon, including a faster deployment push by the Trump administration for drones, munitions, and maritime capabilities. He suggests multiyear procurement contracts for priority munitions, streamlined contracting procedures, and greater utilization of allied shipyards in Japan and South Korea to ease the burden on U.S. industry.
Additionally, Jones calls for increased integration of commercial artificial intelligence firms such as Nvidia and Google into national security programs. He urges increasing defense spending as a share of GDP towards levels seen during the Cold War and warns against further defense-industry consolidation, which could weaken competition and innovation.
