Treasury Committee Launches Inquiry into Office for Budget Responsibility's First 15 Years
The Treasury Committee of MPs has launched an inquiry into the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), examining its first 15 years and considering potential reforms to its remit and operations.
This inquiry follows increased scrutiny before the Budget and the resignation of OBR chair Richard Hughes after an error that led to the publication of a key forecast an hour before the chancellor’s Budget speech.
Committee chair Dame Meg Hillier emphasized that the inquiry aims to provide an honest assessment of what the OBR does well and where it needs improvement, without scapegoating the watchdog.
The OBR's role includes providing independent economic forecasts, assessing the cost of government policies, and monitoring whether the chancellor meets self-imposed economic rules.
Ahead of the Budget, questions about the OBR’s influence surfaced when a productivity downgrade affected views on meeting spending rules. Chancellor Reeves argued this downgrade would complicate compliance.
It later emerged that higher tax receipts offset the productivity downgrade, prompting some claims that Reeves had misled the public; however, Reeves denies this. A senior OBR figure stated that the chancellor’s comments were not inconsistent and noted that the OBR raised concerns about leaks.
Reeves admitted there were too many unauthorized leaks before the Budget and supported a Treasury inquiry into these leaks.
The OBR was created in 2010 and publishes its forecasts alongside the chancellor’s Budget statement. The committee plans to examine aspects including communication, forecasting processes, impartiality, transparency, and whether the OBR's resources and remit should be changed.
Dame Meg Hillier expressed hope that the inquiry will be useful for the appointment of the new OBR chair when that position is filled.
