Trump's 'Golden Age' Economic Promises Face Challenges in 2025
Upon returning to office, Trump declared the start of a 'golden age' for the US economy and projected positive results within six months to a year. However, by December 2025, the anticipated economic surge had not materialized and timelines slipped.
Jobs growth slowed considerably in 2025, averaging about 55,000 new jobs per month through November, a 67% decrease compared to 2024. Manufacturing employment showed little improvement, with factory jobs increasing in only 2 of 10 months following Trump's return. In October 2025, the US experienced a net loss of 105,000 jobs, though November saw a delayed addition of 64,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, marking the highest rate in over four years.
Tariffs saw a sharp increase, with the average effective tariff rate climbing from 2.4% to 16.8%, the highest since 1935. The rollout of these tariffs was erratic, characterized by delays and reversals. Despite this, the administration lowered tariffs on some imports, including beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas.
Inflation remained a concern throughout 2025. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year in November, even as earlier in the year inflation had been falling. While Trump publicly claimed that prices were falling, economists warned that the elevated tariffs could push prices higher.
Policy actions during the year included $12 billion in aid to farmers and proposals for stimulus checks funded by tariffs. A tax-and-spend plan referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was also presented as a boost to households and investment.
Economists remained skeptical about the prospect of a near-term economic boom. For example, MIT economist Simon Johnson expressed doubts that 2026 would bring better conditions for most Americans, while Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs projected approximately 2% GDP growth for 2026, noting only a modest fiscal boost from current policy proposals.
Public messaging emphasized optimism, with visible rally signs promoting confidence, but most Americans had yet to experience any economic boom by the end of 2025.
