TUC warns UK Budget watchdog could hinder economic growth ahead of Autumn Budget
The Trades Union Congress (TUC) has raised concerns that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) could straitjacket economic growth and has urged an urgent post-budget review to modernise its role ahead of Chancellor Reeves's Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025.
TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak criticised the OBR, saying it is hardwired to support austerity and is not fit for purpose. Reeves herself has expressed anger regarding the timing of a revised OBR productivity forecast that could create a £20 billion hole in public finances and threaten her fiscal rules.
The OBR's forecasts have repeatedly assumed a return to pre-2008 productivity growth despite two decades of weaker growth. The latest revision cut trend productivity growth by about 0.3 percentage points.
The TUC has called for the adoption of a single forecast or a post-budget review process to reduce volatility in forecasting. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested that the fiscal rule should be complied with annually, while the government continues with biannual forecasts.
Established in 2010 by then-Chancellor George Osborne, the OBR has faced criticism from across the political spectrum regarding its forecasting approach and impact on economic policy.
The Treasury stated that it respects the OBR's independence but declined to comment ahead of the forecast due on 26 November.
