Two Technical Signals Hinting at a Bitcoin Bear Market
Eight out of ten key on-chain metrics remain bearish according to the CryptoQuant Bull Score. Bitcoin is trading around $91,600, down approximately 14% over the past week. It recently experienced its first weekly close below the 50-week moving average—near $100,000—since October 2023. A death cross occurred as the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, signaling a potential start of a bear market.
Derivatives data shows open interest above levels seen on October 10, while falling cumulative volume delta amid rising open interest implies an increase in short bets, indicating downward momentum. The 25-delta skew is negative, suggesting put buying for downside protection. Meanwhile, perpetual data reveals dip-buying activity, with a rising funding rate and wider bid-ask delta at 5–10% depth.
Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, comments that a recovery could occur if Bitcoin consolidates above $100,000, with a breakout above $105,000 needed for confident growth. Factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong US economic data could improve market sentiment. Current market weakness is attributed to risk-off dynamics in traditional markets and profit-taking in AI-related equities, which have pressured cryptocurrency valuations.
