U.S. Unemployment Hits Four-Year High Amid Market Fluctuations and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The U.S. unemployment rate reached 4.6% in November, marking a four-year high, following the release of October and November payroll data after a 43-day government shutdown. November payrolls increased by 64,000 while October saw a decline of 105,000 jobs. Federal government jobs continued to fall, though sectors like healthcare and construction recorded gains. Revisions to August and September job tallies showed downward adjustments.
In response, Bitcoin traded around $87,200, down about 0.5% over 24 hours, while Ethereum fell approximately 3.5% to near $2,935. Despite this fluctuation, sentiment remains optimistic as prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent Dastan, assigns a 69% chance Bitcoin will return to $100,000 before potentially dropping to $69,000. This outlook is supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
New York Fed President John C. Williams noted easing supply-chain bottlenecks, slowing housing inflation, and decelerating wage growth, supporting forecasts for further Fed rate reductions in 2026. MUFG economist Lee Hardman expects several rate cuts in 2026 with inflation projected around 2.5% that year, easing to 2.0% in 2027.
A softer U.S. dollar historically benefits Bitcoin by enhancing global liquidity and making dollar-denominated risk assets more attractive to international investors. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fluctuated with the employment data release, the overall market maintains an optimistic view that monetary policy easing could bolster Bitcoin's return to the six-figure level.
