UK Asylum Overhaul Risks Increasing Homelessness and Backlogs, NAO Warns
A recent report by the National Audit Office (NAO) warns that the UK Home Secretary's proposed overhaul of the asylum system could lead to increased homelessness among asylum seekers and exacerbate case backlogs unless existing bottlenecks are addressed effectively.
The NAO highlights significant gaps in civil service data, including unknown numbers of asylum seekers not claiming benefits and absconded claimants. Data on enforcement actions and removals remain incomplete, while the Ministry of Justice lacks comprehensive information on upper tribunal caseloads and repeated appeals.
Short-term, reactive measures have shifted pressures within the system, leaving many claims unresolved for extended periods. More than half of applicants who lodged claims nearly three years ago are still awaiting decisions.
Although proposals aim to accelerate decisions and removals to relieve system pressure, the NAO cautions that these measures are complex. Their success depends on improvements in case movement, data quality, and evidence-based approaches; otherwise, there is a risk of unintended consequences, including increased homelessness and impacts on wider priorities.
The reforms, modelled on Denmark's rules, have sparked backlash, particularly over plans to deport families with children and extend the waiting period for permanent residence from 5 to 20 years.
The NAO recommends that by the end of 2026, the Home Office should develop a strategic plan for implementing the new asylum model, establish system indicators, create a long-term data blueprint, and conduct evidence-based evaluations of interventions.
The total estimated asylum system spending for 2024-25 stands at £4.9 billion, with £3.4 billion allocated to accommodation and support.
Refugee Council CEO has criticized the system as dysfunctional and emphasized the need for timely decisions, adequate capacity, and integration support for asylum seekers. The Home Office, however, states that the reforms will restore order and increase removals, citing progress on removals, illegal work arrests, and reductions in small-boat crossing attempts.
